Showing posts with label #investmentpsyhology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #investmentpsyhology. Show all posts

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Australian Property and Dire Straits! How being a contrarian saves you from crazy bad IPO's


Australian Property and Dire Straits! How being a contrarian saves you from crazy bad IPO's
https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/heres-proof-property-has-peaked

Property tops.... Australian Economy drops .... Bank default rates increase .... Aus banks cut dividends ....
Aus banks drop.  No saving from China this time!

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Where is the Optimism in the economy or stock markets?



Morgan Stanley recently produced a  report saying that there have been net OUTFLOWS in equities from 2010-2015 essentially, EVEN AS THE SPX rose as much as it has.

(see chart of equity flows since 2010 in particular - with few inflow weeks since then).
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-equity-mutual-fund-inflows-2014-8

http://www.morganstanleyfa.com/public/projectfiles/a4da036b-5f43-4891-a27d-ee518764b497.pdf
http://marketrealist.com/2015/04/us-equities-consolidate-current-levels/


Recently the data has included some net inflows into the ETFs and equity market especially when a new high in SPY is hit, but also into high yield bonds!

To me i would ask WHERE IS THE OPTIMISM SO FAR?  I say nil to minimal.

My Reason: Even if the trend of inflows into equities continues we are just at the beginning of optimism, but there is still
a search for yield/risk aversion leading to bond inflows at the same time somewhat negating that.

I think it will be interesting if this trend is a crossover point ... TBA i guess?  But I am still bullish stocks, and bearish bonds.